Oliver Perez gets the start for the Mets, followed by Hisanori Takahashi, Nelson Figueroa, Sean Green, Bobby Parnell, and Jenrry Mejia.

The game is on PIX11 and MLB.tv and on the radio on WFAN.

With so much of the talk during ST revolving around rising stars, I thought the time was ripe for another Prospect Smackdown.  And where better to focus than first base, with 3 teams in the NL East nearly ready to graduate young first base prospects, all of whom are big, athletic lefties with similar profiles, figuring to anchor their respective lineups for years to come.  As usual, I'll try to be as impartial as possible here.

                       

Prospect Smackdown: Ike Davis vs. Freddie Freeman vs. Logan Morrison

BACKGROUND & INTANGIBLES

Davis:  The son of former Yankee reliever Ron Davis, Ike Davis was drafted 18th overall by the Mets back in 2008 and signed for $1.575M.  This came after a decorated career at Arizona State which included Freshman of the Year, All-Pac 10 & All-American honors and an ASU Team MVP award over fellow Sun Devil Brett Wallace; he was also the first freshman to ever lead the illustrious Pac-10 in RBI's and served as a middle of the order presence (as well as closer) during two National Championship runs.  Ike is known as a hard worker who exudes confidence and is driven to live up to his bloodlines.

Freeman:  Frederick Freeman was a second round draftee (78th overall) by the Braves in 2007, signing for just over $400K.  Freeman was a highly touted high school player out of SoCal, committing to college baseball powerhouse Cal State-Fullerton before being drafted.  He dropped in the draft a bit due to concerns about an 'aloof' approach to the game.  Much like Davis, Freeman was known to play at first and corner OF and even pitched out of the 'pen.  Also like Davis, he is now well-regarded for his work ethic and drive.

Morrison:  Logan Morrison was selected back in the 2005 draft by the Marlins in the (believe it or not) 22nd round (666th overall).  However, the explanation is that Morrison, while a strong high school player out of Louisiana, was not particularly high on national draft boards.  The Marlins selected him as part of the now defunct Draft-and Follow process and Morrison went on to star at Maplewood Community College (Albert's alma mater) then signed for $225K.  Morrison is also known for his solid makeup and good work ethic and, like Davis, is an extremely confident player.

ADVANTAGE:  You really can't go wrong here, they're all hard workers, praised for their good makeup.  I guess you give a nod to the Marlins for saving a ton of dough by effectively utilizing the DFE process but as far as the players go this one has got to be even.

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PHYSICALITY & TOOLS

Davis:  Ike is 6'4", 215lbs, a lefty thrower and hitter, born on March 22, 1987.  His best tool is his raw power as witnessed in this recent ST slam; his smooth uppercut stroke (view below) affords him light-tower power.  On the flipside, it can get long, leading to a lot of strikeouts and he doesn't often drive the ball to the opposite field.  Davis' other plus tool is his arm strength; as the ASU closer Ike worked in the low 90's.  He possesses a projectable frame but is thought of by scouts as more of a baseball player than a raw athlete due to his below average footspeed.  Though needing more consistency, Davis is considered a natural at first with the potential for plus defense.  Davis' only major injury came in '07 when he was forced to undergo wrist surgery to remove bone chips.

Freeman:  Freeman is listed at 6'5", 220lbs (though Mike Newman, of the invaluable Scouting the Sally thinks more like 6'2"-6'3").  He's a lefty hitter and righty thrower and he was born on September 12, 1989.  Freeman's best tool is his raw hitting ability.  He possesses a superb mixture of contact, developing power and strong plate discipline which combined with his compact stroke (view below) leads to far fewer strikeouts than most power hitters.  At 20, Freeman has a big frame with the potential for more strength as he matures, though he will never be mistaken for a speedster.  Like Davis, he possesses a power arm, hitting 90+mph on the mound in HS.  He is an average defender at first and while he's been mostly healthy, Freeman was slowed by a nagging wrist injury during the '09 season.

 Morrison:  Morrison is 6'4" (I've also seen 6'2"), 245lbs, a lefty thrower and hitter, born on August 25, 1987.  Depending who you ask, Morrison's top tool is either his tremendous plate disciple, his potentially plus power or his excellent raw hitting ability.  Though a little long, Morrison has a nice level, line drive cut (view below) which explains his tremendous 20% LD rate between '08-'09 (compared to 17% for Davis & 15% for Freeman) and allows him to drive the ball to all fields.  What's more, Morrison accumulated nearly 20 more walks than strikeouts in '09, showcasing his superb on-base skills.  Bulkier than the other two, Morrison is not known for his defensive range at first nor in the OF, though he also has a very strong arm and his hands have reportedly gotten a lot better since he was drafted.  Morrison has been very healthy but was sidelined early in '09 after suffering a fracture in his wrist.  Noticing a trend here?

ADVANTAGE:  Davis is probably the best athlete and fielder of the bunch with the most raw power but Morrison has stronger pure hitting skills and far better plate discipline.  Freeman is a mixture of both so I think he gets the nod here.

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PERFORMANCE & SKILLS

Davis:  Ike started his pro career in '08 with a strange stint in the NY-Penn League where he went homerless in 215 ab's.  He still drove the ball exceptionally well (18.5% LD rate vs. 17.3% in '09) but needed to get that FB rate up.  Fortunately he did just that in '09 jumping from 34% flyballs in '08 to 43% in '09 which led to 19 hrs, while batting a robust .309 in his first taste of AA and following that with a stellar performance (.341/.394/.565) in the highly competitive AFL.  On the negative side, he struck out 112 times which when coupled with only 61 walks gives cause to worry about his AVG and OBP as he moves up the ladder.  Add in his poor platoon split for the trifecta (only .242/.301/.371 against lefties in '09) and suddenly there's cause for some concern.

Freeman:  Freeman answered pre-draft concerns about his "energy for the game" by holding his own in the GCL at 17, then bursting onto the scene in full-season ball in '08.  Freeman mashed 18 hr's while batting .316 and set the Rome Braves single season hits record.  His '09 wasn't so explosive as mid-summer wrist problems sapped his power (.405 SLG vs .524 in '08) but he continued to cut his impressive strikeout total to only 60 vs. 37 walks.  Freeman also improved his performance against lefties in '09, with a difference of just .003 points in his OPS splits.  He will need to prove that it was mostly the wrist, not advanced competition, that slowed him in AA (as well as the AFL).

Morrison:  After an uninspiring pro debut in '06, Morrison too burst into full-season baseball, blasting 23 homers in '07 and exhibiting the ability to drive the ball to all fields (view below). He followed with another impressive performance in '08 where he hit 13 hrs in the pitcher-friendly FSL and batted .332 with a very strong K:BB ratio.  Last season, he improved even more in that regard posting a very impressive 63 walks to only 46 strikeouts.  However, Morrison's power numbers took a step back in '09 as he slugged only .442 with 8 hrs.  Many feel, like Freeman, he too was a victim of wrist woes however, some worry that his consistently low FB rates (33% career vs. Freeman's 38% and Davis' 40%) coupled with high GB rates point to a 15-20 hr hitter, not a 30+ hr stud.  He too has had big problems with lefties to this point.

                     

Advantage:  You can't punish Freeman and Morrison who both had nagging injuries holding them back, but ultimately Davis put on a far more impressive overall performance in the ever important Double-A litmus test so I have to give him the edge here.

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PROJECTION: 

Davis:  John Sickels (of the excellent SB Nation Minor League Ball Blog) called him "Lyle Overbay with an excellent glove."  I suppose that's a pretty good middle ground comp, though I think that's shortchanging his power a bit.  I'd say his absolute ceiling is a great fielder, very good power, lots of K's and low AVG, basically a Carlos Pena-lite type player.  Worst case, he can't hit lefties at all and strikeouts kill him:  Mike Jacobs.

Freeman:  At age 20 you've got to figure he's got more room to develop.  So to me, his ceiling is along the same trail that Joey Votto is blazing: 25-30 hrs, .300+ AVG, nearly .400 OBP, equal batting splits and solid defense at first.  He'll have to work on taking some more walks but it could definitely happen.  More pessimistic, his power stalls out and he's a lefty version of Conor Jackson.

Morrison:  His bat looks real, his plate discipline is impressive, It all depends on how you view his power.  He clearly drives the ball to all fields better than the other two but will that equate to homers or a lot of doubles in the left center gap? If he develops like Marlins fans think, his ceiling looks a lot like Justin Morneau.  However, if you're worried about those low FB rates he tops out as a 18-24hr guy in the majors, think Sean Casey.  If the HR power of '07 doesn't reappear whatsoever, think James Loney.

Advantage:  This really depends what you're looking for.  I'd say Morrison's skills are more of a sure thing to translate while Freeman's ceiling is higher.  If all goes right for Morrison he may challenge that idea but to me Freeman's greater room for improvement due to age clinches it.

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SUMMARY:

2009 Cumulative StatsAVGOPSHRK:BB Davis (A+/AA) .299 .905 19 109:56 Freeman (A+/AA) .278 .766 8 59:37 Morrison (AA) .277 .813 8 46:63

Let's go to the Prospect Rankings:  In their most recent Top 100 BA sees Morrison ahead at #20, Freeman at #32 and Ike at #62.  Though all are ranked at 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale. 

Prospect Guru John Sickels rates Morrison as a B+ and attributes the power slippage to his injury.  Ditto Freddie Freeman but he raises development concerns.  He gives Ike a B but says he sees more "solid regular than future star".

BP/Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock list interestingly places Morrison and Freeman at #51 and #52 respectively, Davis at #87.

If I'm starting an organization today and I need to pick a cornerstone first baseman, I take Freddie Freeman.  And my main determining factor is age.  They've all put up impressive performances at a high level, each exhibits differing yet very valuable skills and it's very interesting all of the similarities linking the three.  But the biggest variation to me is the fact that Freeman has 2 more years to develop beyond Davis and Morrison yet he is already at or near their same levels of performance.  Next I'd probably take Morrison for his superior raw hitting skills but IMO Davis' seemingly wide gap in defense makes this closer than the above rankings portray.  The funny thing is that this comparison is close enough that any of these guys could easily end up as the best or worst of the three.  However it shakes out, it should be a lot of fun to watch these three guys graduate into the NL East in the next year or so.

Poll Who do you select to man first base for your team?

• Ike Davis
• Freddie Freeman
• Logan Morrison

  22 votes | Results

Yes, he hit 3 HR's in 3 straight at bats. In Spring Training. Should he be in the opening day roster because of that?

(He should be considered for the opening day roster because of all the other stuff, not just 3 AB).

Note: This is not about the Oakland Athletics prospect (right-handed hitter), The X-Files creator, the safety, the wide receiver, the New Zealand politician or the Canadian television actor.

Small rant:

The number of people jumping on the Carter bandwagon has increased because of his ST performance. It's all nice and all that people are paying attention to him, but even before ST, what could be expected from him?

 

Shortest intro: 

Chris Carter was the PTBNL in the trade that sent Billy Wagner to the Red Socks! Sox. He is a 27 years old left-handed hitter and he has spent the last 4 years in AAA.

 

Scouting report and Minor League Data (link)

Scouting: "Extremely intelligent, Carter is a real student of hitting, and has demonstrated success with the bat at every level.  Excellentpower with the potential for more.   Hits for average and consistently gets on base at a very good clip.  Hits lefties and righties well.  Below average speed.   In the field, Carter has spent much of his career at 1B but was moved to the outfield in 2008.  He has always been known as a poor fielder, and still doesn't look particularly comfortable at any position.  He has focused on his glove and footwork and has improved slightly, but still not enough. " SoxProspects - summer/2009

"Chris Carter was dealt to the Red Sox from the Diamondbacks via the Nationals much for the same reasons Wily Mo Pena was dealt from the Red Sox. He was roadblocked. He has some similarities to Pena's game, interestingly enough. Carter has power to all fields, but has much more upside than Pena because he has spent time developing his swing in the minors and has a keen eye for the strike zone. Carter is a below-average defensive player who has spent most of his time at first base. His lefthandedness helps his reach to the bag, but his glove is far below current Red Sox infield standards. As a leftfielder he has seen fairly limited time and has a weak arm and poor range. He will fit into the Sox farm system right away with his exceptional grasp on the game and smart instincts both on the basepaths and at the plate. His speed is slightly below average, but his instincts help to make him a solid runner on the basepaths. His above average build makes him a prime candidate to catch fielders off guard with the occasional delayed steal. In 2007, he has reached based at a near even clip against both righties and lefties and can certainly work the count against each. He has shown great poise with runners on base as much as a minor leaguer can. His conditioning makes him very durable throughout a full season of games and with some more seasoning could be hitting 15-22 home runs in a major league lineup in 2 years, but may be stuck behind David Ortiz as DH in the Sox system, as he was stuck behind Connor Jackson in the Diamondbacks system, but we could see him as soon as September in a limited bench role. Could fill in for the Red Sox in 2008 in a bench role a la Eric Hinske if he works on his defense. Carter also had surgery after the 2006 season to his ailing right wrist that was aggravated by his gripping of the bat. He had his unciform bone removed along with torn cartilage." - Sons of Sam Horn - August/2007

According to Rubin, "Carter does have a minor-league option remaining, so there’s also a pretty good chance he’s with Triple-A Buffalo."  In regards to Carter’s swing, Ade writes, "I haven’t seen a minor leaguer with a sweeter power swing since Ryan Zimmerman came to Savannah." - Source Metsblog/LobbyNews

AVGOBPSLGOPS Career .296 .369 .492 .861 Against L .296 .379 .409 .788 Against R .296 .366 .524 .890 2009 .296 .359 .467 .826

He doesn't have a huge platoon split, getting on base at the same rate against L and R. The difference is his power translates better against R pitching. 

Although he has played mostly 1B/DH in his minors, in the last 2 years he played more corner OF (137 games) than 1B (11 games) or DH (91). Keep in mind the 1B/OF Diamondbacks/Red Sox depth.

 

Defense:

 

YearPosGamesRunsRuns/150 2006 1B 124 -6 -9 2007 1B 101 -8 -15 2008 LF 77 +6 +11 2009 RF 45 -1 -3

TotalZone evaluated him as -6 and -8 runs below average in 1B in 2006 and 2007 (-9 and -15/150 games), but he was better at LF (+6 in 2008, +11/150) and RF (-1 in 2009, -3/150).

One scouting report mentioned his "stone hands", that could partially explain his worse performance at 1B than COF. I couldn't find the link though. (Insert snark remark how inept the Mets front office is for asking Carter to compete for the 1B job).

Here is the thing, we only have TotalZone numbers (no UZR or plus/minus to compare), minor league numbers are less reliable then major league data and the sample size is small. I would guess at corner OF he is around -5 defense. One certain Fangraphs article mentioned "9.26 RF/G" to say he was a good defender at 1B, but let's ignore that.

So, taking another approach, how much could his defense be bad to equal say Francoeur. There is a zero chance for him to start at RF and he isn't even the front-runner for the last bench spot. This is merely a comparison of value.

 

Projections

CHONE projects him to hit .276/.337/.452/.789 or wOBA of .344 and wRC+ of 111. I tried to find how CHONE projections are made or methodology comparisons or something, but let's stick to a short description for now: "(CHONE) uses four years of weighted numbers, runs a regression, adjusts for age, and then makes some common-sense tweaks to the playing time forecasts" link. Converting wOBA to wRAA (offensive runs above average) using the formula ((wOBA – lg wOBA)/Scale) * PA, for 600PA, we get 7.3 wRAA. If we compare to Francoeur's projected wOBA of .327 and wRAA of -1.5, Carter's defense would have to be worse than Francoeur's by 8.8 runs to match his production.

 

Park ajustment

Taking into consideration Park Factors, Citi Field dimensions, HitTracker lucky homers/just enoughs at Citi Field, Gameday BIP Location and MinorLeagueSplits spray chart, it seems lefties with pull power, like Carter, would benefit from the park. Murphy, Ibanez and Utley all lead the "lucky homers" category in Citi Field.

Park Factor (1 year)

Runs1B2B3BHR 0.943 0.955 0.955 1.200 1.057 Rank 22th 25th 19th 7th 12th

Gameday BIP Location

 

Carter's spray chart

 

Speedy hitters with gap power have their triple numbers increase, like Pagan. On the other hand right handed hitters with line drive swing and gap power will have trouble hitting HR's (opposite field and left center). Wright and possibly why the Mets didn't pursue Matt Holliday (insert snark comment here about the dysfunctional Mets front office).

 

Conclusion

Carter's offensive production should be enough to earn him the last bench spot, based on his handedness, competition, minor league numbers and CHONE projection. His defense might not be as bad as people think, specially at the corner OF. And his slugging numbers might benefit from Citi Field configuration. Though, in all likelihood he'll be sent back for yet another year in AAA.

 

Grission Tales

Q&A with Chris Carter - August/2009

Carter spotted opportunity - April/2009

A tale of two Chris Carters - May/2009

"The Animal", "don't touch my bat", hard working, shows up early for training (kinda stuff here)

Chris Carter makes the team: +10%  GKR Drinking Game beverage consumption, +5% comments about Touch Down and +130 wMSPF (weighted mspaintz fanshot) about the X-Files.

 

Notes: replaced the BIP image for the correct one. Added meme line.

More photos » Jeff Chiu - AP

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In a recent online chat, CSNBayArea's Mychael Urban gave a shout-out to SB Nation blogs Athletics Nation and McCovey Chronicles, and also predicted that 29 year-old Giants outfielder Fred Lewis would be "cut loose near the end of camp". If this happens, the Mets should try to sign him, much like they did when Gary Sheffield became available just before Opening Day 2009.

Lewis is a lefty-hitting corner outfielder with a career wOBA of .343 in 1048 plate appearances. Projections peg him at something around a .330-.340 wOBA, or slightly above average. He's also a plus defender in the corner outfield spots, per all the defensive metrics. This is an overall league average performer who would be manning the Mets' fifth outfielder spot (and is probably better than the current third and fourth outfielders).

Lewis is out of options and wouldn't cost anything.  Based on this post at McCovey Chronicles, it seems he might be the Angel Pagan of the Giants, at least in the average fan's view:

The haters chime in here, saying things like  "Lewis drives me nuts when he plays the outfield! He takes weird routes! He makes stupid baserunning mistakes! He just isn’t a heady baseball player!" I can see your point. I disagree with the premise that it adds up to Lewis being a below-average player, but I can see how he’s a frustrating player to watch.

Sounds like the type of player Brian Sabean wants no part of, much to the chagrin of MCC but potentially to the delight of Amazin' Avenue. Production trumps (almost) everything, and Met fans should be happy to endure the occasional baserunning blunder in return for a 1-2 win player being paid peanuts.

If the season began today, emerging cult hero Chris "The Animal" Carter would be worthy of a spot on the big-league bench. However, if Lewis is jettisoned by the San Francisco brain trust and signed by the Mets, Carter would rightfully start the season at AAA. This situation should be monitored and let's hope for a subpar March performance from Lewis.

Meet the Mets

The big news yesterday was obviously that Jose Reyes is out for at least two weeks and maybe even eight, but really, who can actually expect that Reyes will be back before 14 weeks? But, I'm so glad that Omar signed Alex Cora when he's likely going to turn to minor leaguer Ruben Tejada as a replacement. Here's what you should expect to go through in terms of grief. And here is Greg Prince's teeth gnashing.

Oh yeah, and there was baseball yesterday as the Red Sox thumped the Mets 8-2. What you should know: Mike Pelfrey is still struggling and Mike Jacobs and Jason Pridie homered back-to-back. 

R.J. Anderson weighs in on the Jenrry Mejia lunacy.

Mack presents a useful list of Met prospects you should probably have on your radar.

Patrick Flood follows up on yesterday's post, explaining why starters are more valuable than relievers.

Around MLB

If you want to feel a little bit better about life, here are the ways that the Phillies could take large steps back this year.

A crazy baseball fight in Cuba.

Baseball stadium models built of Legos. I pretty much had to pass this along, seeing as I am Lego David Wright.

Perennially underappreciated Brian Giles has retired after getting tired of dealing with his bum knees.

The Rockies and Todd Helton have agreed on a two-year extension.

Nomar got one day of grace from steroid accusations. 

 

If you haven't done so already, I won't judge you, but you probably should check out the Amazin' Avenue Annual. It's free and really, if you're reading this, I know you have the time to download and read it. 

The Mets drafted Pete Schourek in the second round of the 1987 draft out of Marshall High School in Virginia. Schourek’s principal asset as an 18-year-old was his height; his lanky, six-foot-five frame offered lots in the way of projection, and his sinking fastball was already sitting in the high 80s. It didn’t require much imagination to see Schourek eventually sitting in the low 90s, plus velocity for a southpaw. The other big point in Schourek’s favor was that he already had a very good breaking ball, a hammer curve that could bend knees. He needed a changeup, but that’s really not uncommon for young high school arms.

The Mets quickly signed Pistol Pete and sent him to Kingsport to close out 1987. He made 12 starts and pitched just okay: his strikeout rate was okay, his walk rate was okay. He wasn’t a world beater, but he held his own, and the Mets were prepared to give him a taste of full-season ball in 1988. But Schourek’s elbow had other ideas, and Tommy John surgery kept him out for the entirety of the season.

Schourek’s 1989 suddenly become a season of paramount importance. He had lost a year of development, and nobody knew what to expect from his arm as it recovered. He played a whole season for Columbia in the South Atlantic League, and the results were generally positive. His ERA was well above the league average, and his strikeout rate was much stronger than it had been at Kingsport, increasing from 6.5 to 8.7 per nine innings. He was walking a batter every two innings, but, coming off a major arm surgery, it was a strong showing. The Mets rewarded his performance with a promotion to St. Lucie late in the season.

And in 1990 Schourek had a breakout. He started in St. Lucie and made five starts, posting a 0.97 ERA while walking just eight in 37 innings. The Mets aggressively promoted Schourek and sent him to Double-A Jackson, where he continued his strong pitching in the Texas League, posting a 3.02 ERA over 19 starts. The walk rate was still strong at 2.8 per nine innings, and he did a good job of keeping the ball in the park. Like the season before, the Mets promoted Schourek just before season’s end, sending him to Triple-A Tidewater to make his final two starts. All-in-all, Schourek went 16–5 with a 2.57 ERA over 175 innings across three levels. While the strikeout rates fell to pedestrian levels and his velocity never really broke 90, Schourek was looking like a very good finesse prospect. Baseball America named Schourek the Mets’ second-best prospect behind flamethrower Anthony Young and the number 33 prospect in baseball.

Mets manager Bud Harrelson shocked everyone when he told the press that the 22-year-old Schourek had made the 1991 Mets’ staff out of spring training. The spot in the bullpen opened when Sid Fernandez fractured his arm, forcing the team to move reliever Wally Whitehurst into the starting rotation. It was a puzzling move. Schourek was a promising starting pitching prospect. He needed regular work, and he wasn’t going to get that in the back of a major league bullpen. And he struggled, predictably posting a 5.32 ERA before being demoted at the end of May. He made a couple starts in Tidewater, pitching well before the Mets recalled him after injuries ravaged their pitching staff. He mostly stayed in the bullpen, but was inserted into the rotation at the end of August. He pitched better there, going 3–1 with a 4.15 ERA over his final six starts, the highlight being a one-hit shutout against the Expos. On the whole, this was the Mets’ first misstep with Schourek, resulting in a lost year pitching in an unfamiliar role that was neither his past nor his future.

In 1992, new manager Jeff Torborg sent Schourek to Tidewater where he pitched well over his first eight starts. He was promoted and posted a solid 3.64 ERA over 21 starts and a relief appearance. This was how the Mets should have treated Schourek in 1991. There was a warning sign, however: his strikeout rate was a pitiful 4.0 per nine innings. But the walk rate was under 3.0 per nine innings, and he kept the ball inside the park. Whatever the strikeout rate, it was a step forward for Schourek, and it looked like he might pull a Mary Tyler Moore and make it after all.

That is until Dallas Green happened. Torborg was fired early in 1993, and the Mets replaced him with Green, who was instructed to light a fire under the mostly veteran team. The problem was Schourek wasn’t a veteran and shouldn’t have been treated like one. He got off to a rocky start, and when Green took over, he immediately yanked him from the starting rotation, which didn’t please the 24-year-old lefty. Green took notice of Schourek’s attitude and spent the season using him as his personal yo-yo, yanking him between the rotation and the bullpen. When Schourek pitched poorly, Green would publicly bash him to the press. After one September relief appearance, Green yanked Schourek after one inning in a blowout, telling reporters afterward, "I’ll give him to you for Christmas if you want."

Although both men claimed to be ready to bury the hatchet the next spring, neither one made much of an effort, and the two barely spoke. And while Green claimed to be willing to accept Schourek on the team, he insisted the kid be demoted during the first week of the season—Schourek didn’t even pitch—in favor of the forgettable Doug Linton. Out of options, the Mets had to expose Schourek to the waiver wire, a move general manager Joe McIlvaine called a gamble. Reds GM Jim Bowden immediately made a claim and looked like a genius. He pitched fairly well for the Reds in 1994 before finishing second to Greg Maddux in the 1995 NL Cy Young race.

It’s well known that Schourek was never as good again. But Schourek’s 18–7 1995 did not have many of the qualities of a fluke season. He had phenomenal control, an above average strikeout rate, and an above average ground ball rate. His FIP that season was nearly as good as his ERA. The real problem was that he was never completely healthy after. His pitching elbow would undergo three more surgeries before his career ended in 2001, the first of those coming in July 1996. Schourek bounced around for a while afterward, and he’d occasionally be quite effective, as with Boston in 2000.

Getting back to the Mets, where did they go wrong with Schourek? In general, they showed a complete lack of patience. Young pitchers need two things: regular innings and time. The move to the bullpen in 1991 cost him the former, and the team rarely seemed willing to ride out the rocky points in Schourek’s career. This is sometimes excusable. Schourek’s strikeout rates were concerning, and not every team can wait for a pitcher to develop at the major league level. But the 1991–1993 Mets were not one of those teams, losing an average of 92 games a season.

And Dallas Green was just an unfortunate choice to manage those mid-90s teams. They started out as a veteran team, but they needed to transition into a developing one, and Green’s refusal to accept talented kids like Jeromy Burnitz and Schourek—not to mention his abuse of young pitchers’ arms—contributed to the team’s woes over the next few seasons.

More photos » Denis Poroy - AP

Brian Giles: better than you. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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Brian Giles retired today, and I have a feeling that he probably won't get the recognition he deserves for being a truly remarkable hitter for a long time. Frankly, I'm not sure he ever got it, though the Padres did once trade Jason Bay and Oliver Perez for him so it seems like someone in San Diego thought very highly of him.

I'm not saying that people didn't realize he was a good player, just that they probably don't realize how good he was for a little while there.

wOBA1 wOBA2 wOBA3 wOBA4 Brian Giles .434 .433 .413 .445 Alex Rodriguez .433 .428 .424 .420 Albert Pujols .462 .439 .436 .448

The table above represents the best consecutive four-season stretches for Giles (1999-2002), Alex Rodriguez (2000-2003), and Albert Pujols (2003-2006). They don't necessarily represent these players' four best seasons, but perhaps the peaks of their careers (though Pujols might actually be in the midst of his peak right now). While Giles has still been a decent player for the last few years (notwithstanding 2009), he doesn't have nearly the dominant longevity of the other two. Nevertheless, his offensive peak was at least as good as Rodriguez's and not too far off from Pujols's, which puts Giles in pretty good company with arguably the two best non-Bondsian players of the past decade.

Giles's traditional offensive slash lines for those seasons are just awesome.

AVG OBP SLG OPS 1999 .315 .418 .614 1.032 2000 .315 .432 .594 1.026 2001 .309 .404 .590 .994 2002 .298 .450 .622 1.072

The highest Giles ever finished in the MVP voting was 13th in 2002, and he was only an All-Star in two of his four peak seasons. Leg injuries—his knees and ankles in particular—destroyed his power following 2002, as it dipped from .622 to .514. The massive alleys at Petro Park surely did him no favors either, though Giles was able to stick around for a number of years on the strength of his superb eye at the plate. He'll retire with considerably more walks than strikeouts: 1183 to 835. He doesn't have 300 homeruns or even 2,000 hits, and he doesn't really have a chance to make the Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible in five years, but at his best he was surpassed by very few of his contemporaries.

We did this last Wednesday and it might be worthwhile to do each week. Use the latest MTMOM for reference on how the candidates have performed of late.

Poll Pretend today is Opening Day. Who should get the final bench spot?

• Frank Catalanotto
• Chris Carter
• Ike Davis
• Nick Evans
• Mike Hessman
• Mike Jacobs
• Fernando Martinez
• Jason Pridie
• Other

  778 votes | Results

Reyes out 2 - 8 weeks

Maybe Cora will bat 3rd now...

More photos » Richard Drew - AP

Fake shooting people with a bat: gangsta. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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Jason Bay collides with his former team! John Lackey gets his first look at the club that spurned him this offseason! Jerry Manuel says, "That's gangsta!"

Mike Pelfrey gets the start today at Tradition Field, followed by Pedro Feliciano, Tobi Stoner, Ryota Igarashi, Bobby Livingston, Elmer Dessens, and Travis Blackley.

If you're at the game, send a photo of the view from your seat to amazinavenue@gmail.com and maybe we'll put it on the site.

Today's game can be seen on SNY and MLB.tv.

Meet the Mets

The Braves beat the Mets in 10 innings yesterday as Jesus Sucre hit a walkoff home run/single. What you should know: Chris Carter continues to make a strong push for Mike Jacobs' spot with another home run; Carter is now named the "Animal"; the Braves' celebration continues to show the double standard applied to the Mets' antics.

It looks like the Jose Reyes deal has died down, but Joe Posnanski raises a bunch of good points about what we've learned.

Patrick Flood makes an excellent point about Jenrry Mejia's inevitable call-up: it's purely so that Manuel and Minaya can keep their jobs.

Do you remember Jeff Duncan? That brings back some really bad memories.

The A's promptly released Jay Marshall.

Around MLB

Jerry Thornton created a little firestorm with this column which would not have even been published by my high school newspaper. Ted Berg does what Ted Berg does.

Another guy named Jerry, Jerry Brewer says that Jack Zduriencik's strength is in knowing people. 

More controversy: Torii Hunter calls Black Latinos "impostors."

Mike Schmidt on Letterman a long time ago.

John Sickels offers his advice on what to do with Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman.

Do home runs win games?

Oh man, do you think the Twins would want newly minted reliever Jenrry Mejia for Joe Mauer? They'd be idiotic if they did.

Charlie Riedel - AP

Baseball and such. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Lots of movers and shakers since last week. Chris Carter and Ike Davis continue to punish the ball, while Fernando Martinez reminded everyone why he was such a highly touted prospect. Anderson Hernandez seems the likely backup shortstop should Jose Reyes miss out on Opening Day, but Ruben Tejada is making his case. Mike Jacobs: patient hitter?

Player Comment Russ Adams, IF Eleven total bases and a 1.100 slugging percentage. Not sure he can still play second base. Shawn Bowman, IF* Could be a useful guy to have around the farm in the event that Wright ever misses any time. Bowman's glove at third is supposed to be tremendous. Jolbert Cabrera, UT 0-for-9 with a walk and a .182 OPS. I'll take drunk Miguel Cabrera over sober Jolbert Cabrera. Chris Carter, 1B* Carter is making the most of his chances, hitting .625/.667/1.875 (that last one is his SLG, not his OPS) in nine plate appearances, tallying three home runs and eight RsBI. Frank Catalanotto, OF Cat has a triple and a walk in his six trips to the plate, plus a couple of rib-eye steaks. Mike Cervenak, 1B/3B 3-for-7 with a walk. And some other stuff. Ooh, a hit-by-pitch. Chris Coste, C* Five at-bats in three games probably makes sense for a guy who is fourth or fifth on the catching depth chart. Ike Davis, 1B Batting .524/.583/.952 with three doubles, two home runs, nine RsBI and 20 total bases in 24 plate apps. Nick Evans, 1B/OF* Same story, different place. Nobody even knows who this guy is. Evans has even fewer plate appearances (2) than Francisco Pena (3). Jesus Feliciano, OF Five-for-nine with a couple of walks, but his days are probably numbered. Andy Green, IF I thought Green was in camp—he's listed as an NRI on the Mets roster page, but he yet to make an appearance this spring. Kai Gronauer, C Oh, Kai. Not looking good mein Mann. Anderson Hernandez, IF* OPS-ing .984. In nine plate appearances. If Jose Reyes isn't ready by Opening Day, Hernandez could very well start the season with the Mets. Luis Hernandez, IF .377 OPS surely puts him behind Anderson Hernandez on the "Who plays if Reyes can't?" list. Mike Hessman, 1B Not hitting so far, at all. Hit some dingers, man! Everyone is watching. Mike Jacobs, 1B Five walks in 13 plate appearances. Wait, what? Bold prediction: There's almost no way he doesn't make the team. Fernando Martinez, OF* Martinez is rocking a gaudy 1.637 OPS with 20 total bases in 18 at-bats. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF Hitting .300/.462/.400 with a few walks in limited playing time. Mike Nickeas, C Someone's gotta catch bullpen sessions. Francisco Pena, C Pena is really just in camp to catch some pitchers, as evidenced by his zero playing time to this point. Jason Pridie, OF* His .566 OPS is lower than Davis's individual OBP and SLG marks. He also has eight strikeouts in 20 plate appearances. Shawn Riggans, C One can never have too much catching depth, right? Right? Guys? Omir Santos, C* Hitting the crap out of the ball, which they'll love in Texas or Binghamton. Ruben Tejada, SS Leads the team with 25 plate appearances. Could he possibly make the team as a backup middle infielder? Josh Thole, C* 1.111 OPS in nine plate appearances including an opposite-field bomb of a double against the Astros the other day.

Key:
= Chance of making the Mets is unchanged.
= Chance of making the Mets is going down.
= Chance of making the Mets is going up.
* = player on 40-man roster

Introducing: The View From Your Seat (Talking Chop)

I'm curious to know what people think of this. Here are two examples so far. The gist, if you couldn't tell, is that readers of the site take pictures from their seats at Braves games and send them in to be posted on the site. I think it's a neat way to get the community involved and provide a unique perspective of the games.

Is this something AAers would have any interest in trying for Mets games?

Jenrry Mejia Lunacy

Via Adam Rubin:

Look for Manuel to get his way with Jenrry Mejia, at least as far as working the 20-year-old righthander as a reliever from this point forward in camp. If Mejia does end up with Double-A Binghamton, it’s likely he won’t be ready to enter the rotation immediately there, since he won’t be stretched out. My expectation is that from this point forward in camp, Mejia will work as a reliever rather than get three-, four- or five-inning work.

Perhaps "lunacy" is a strong word but I have little confidence that Mets brass will properly handle Mejia.

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

"I huff, and I puff, and I ride that train to Buffalo." (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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The Mets take on the Braves today in Lake Buena Vista, where they apparently don't allow video cameras. You can listen to the game or follow using gameday.

Jon Niese starts for the Mets, and will be followed by Fernando Nieve, Nelson Figueroa, Bobby Parnell, Eddie Kunz, and Eric Niesen.

With 13 long balls so far this spring, the Mets are tied with the Orioles for the most in the "majors". It doesn't mean much, but after 2009's home run impotence it's nice to see a few, ahem, balls leaving the yard.

Meet the Mets

Leave it to the Mets to have this type of story involving Jose Reyes' overactive thyroid. The team says he's out indefinitely. Jose Reyes disagrees. Will someone please tell me how this stuff is still happening?

Johan made his debut yesterday, but wasn't exactly sharp, as the Astros beat up on the Mets 8-4. What you should know: David Wright and Ike Davis homered, GMJ picked up three hits, and Santana gave up four runs.

Francisco Rodriguez had the perfect comment in response to Goose Gossage and the New York Post had the perfect headline for it.

Jerry thinks that Jenrry Mejia has a better shot at making the ball club than Ike Davis. Groan.

The Mets kept their receipt and were able to return lefty Jay Marshall.

Around MLB

Some recent high profile debuts. Stephen Strasburg threw two scoreless innings. Aroldis Chapman reached 100 mph, which is kind of a big deal.

Also a big deal for the Twins: Joe Nathan has a bad arm problem.

Two old guys want to stay involved in the game. Omar Vizquel doesn't want to retire next year and Cal Ripken wants to manage.

Muhammad Ali hangs out with the Giants.

The shape of things to come? (Ron Kaplan's Baseball Bookshelf)

More of me, this time answering questions about the Amazin' Avenue Annual.

Reyes has overactive thyroid, team will release statement soon

Just awful

Catching up with the Mets: Amazin' Avenue (The Nats Blog)

I answered some questions for The Nats Blog. You know, if you don't get enough of my soapboxing here.

More photos » Jeff Roberson - AP

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Johan Santana makes his first appearance of the spring. The game will be televised on SNY and the MLB Network as well as via MLB.tv.

Sean Green, Elmer Dessens, Travis Blackley, Eddie Kunz, Jack Egbert, and Clint Everts are also on the docket.