This is the time of year where we start to hear all sorts of silly rumors with very little basis in fact, but yesterday's rumblings that the Mets are in on Gio Gonzalez made little sense to most Mets fans. Gonzalez is an interesting pitcher who's yet to reach his prime and under team control for several more seasons, and he'd also fill a big hole in the current rotation. If the Cahill deal is anything to go by, the cost for Gio will likely be sky high. It's funny how much things have changed for me since we were relieved of Omar...had this rumor popped up two years ago I'd be crying at the thought of dealing with Billy Beane.

The Mets made an actual move yesterday, signing lefty Chuck James to a minor league contract. In his 326 major league innings James has been exactly replacement level. That should be another decent piece for the Bison rotation, but hopefully we don't have to see him in Flushing.

There is more about the Wilpons today. The Post ran a story today about the Wilpons asking MLB to help them in the Einhorn negotiations. If true, it really does paint an even uglier picture of the Mets owners. FanGraphs ran an article on the Mets ownership as well, this one citing the work that Dan did the other day.

Sandy Alderson is at least making the news for a good reason. He's been named to a committee to study how to handle international talent going forward.

R.A. Dickey will be receiving the Thurman Munson award. It's nice to see Dickey being recognized for his general awesomeness off the field as well as on it.

Finally, teams are awaiting word on who placed the winning bid for Yu Darvish. We know it won't be the Mets, but it's an intriguing story to follow all the same.

Mets join the hunt for Gio Gonzalez

That's what Ken Rosenthal is reporting. Pretty strange since a week ago there were reports the Mets were dangling Niese to teams that had interest in Gio.

It's A Wonderful Life...Unless You're David Wright (2011)

David Wright is down on his luck. His power has deserted him, his glove isn't what it used to be and his best friend left him to go to Florida. Wright is contemplating throwing himself off the Whitestone Bridge when he is visited by a guardian angel who shows him what it would be like for the Mets had Wright never come here. Sadly, it turns out the Mets actually would have done better without Wright and let's just say it doesn't end well for David.

Mets sign Chuck James, and it’s that time of year and that type of year when we cover this stuff like it’s important | Tedquarters

TedQuarters scoops us again! Damn you, Berg!

There's this old fan's tale that ties the derisive "Break up the Mets!" chant to the history of the ballclub.

The story goes that upon the team's first win in team history and after nine consecutive losses to open the 1962 season, journeyman catcher Joe Ginsburg bursts in to the Mets clubhouse and says, "Break up the Mets!" The exclamation caught on for better or worse, but mercifully (or mercilessly, depending on your purview) only erupted 39 more times that season.

But it never quite went away. It carried on ever after in fits and spurts, among future Mets clubhouses and fans at the Polo Grounds and Shea Stadium. In their book The Year The Mets Lost Last Place: The Most Amazing Year in the History of Baseball, Paul Zimmerman and Dick Schaap recalled fans sitting behind home plate at Tom Seaver's near-perfect game against the Cubs in July 1969 starting that exact chant during a Cubs pitching change. It's been used as headline fodder then and now, making for a sarcastic blog post title or a spontaneous utterance.

Call me crazy, but it sounds like the chants are in full force again. We have rampant speculation that Alderson may break up the roster and rebuild without actually uttering the word. We have a dire prognosis for the financial well-being of the Wilpons and calls for MLB to step in and break up the ownership.

So maybe we haven't found ourselves in this particular doom-and-gloom scenario before, but this franchise has a history of shooting itself in the foot and coping with self-deprecating humor. Why stop now?

I'm a firm believer that the Wilpons will not voluntarily sell the Mets. There's simply no incentive as it doesn't fill in any meaningful financial holes for them. And if you haven't admitted to yourself that baseball is a business first, then you should start coming to grips with the fact that the Wilpons keeping hold of the Mets is looking out for themselves -- which is hardly a new phenomenon in professional sports. If you want to own the Mets, you will need to pry them from the cold, dead fingers of the Wilpons via bankruptcy or MLB intervention.

That's just the worst-case scenario, though. If Alderson can build a club capable of playing meaningful enough baseball (i.e. not effectively eliminated by the All-Star break) that would entice you to pony up for tickets in September, then the club could start paying for itself again and leave the Wilpons to work on climbing out of their bigger holes. If the economy turns around and real estate starts booming again, the Wilpons will find themselves flush with cash once more. There are both unlikely scenarios, but the former's not beyond the realm of possibility considering Alderson's track record while the latter is the carrot the Wilpons chase while plugging every hole in the ship in the interim.

There exists a very real possibility that the Mets could enter a dark era rivaling the one following the Midnight Massacre or The Worst Team Money Could Buy. But unlike those eras, we're entering this one with our eyes wide open. No M. Donald Grant to blindside us. No Al Harazin, Steve Phillips, or Omar Minaya adding lousy contract after lousy contract to bury us. No lack of a meaningful framework that allows for successful baseball without a bloated payroll.

I don't know where this trail goes, but I'm very interested in seeing it through. If Alderson pulls this off, it will rival any accomplishment he's achieved in the baseball wing of his decorated history. If the Wilpons come out of this alive, it will be a miracle -- and aren't we rooting for the club that makes believing in miracles one of their core principles?

Break up the Mets? Why? We're just getting started.

Last week, we looked at a news report about Giants fans desperately trying to keep up with game 7 of the World Series while also attending Monday Night Football. Today, we get another on-site news report, this one coming from game 3 of the NLCS against the Astros. This feature from ABC-7 (aka Eyewitness News) sounds appalled at the idea of paying $20 for a playoff ticket, especially if it's in the uppermost reaches of Shea Stadium. The clip gives you a glimpse/reminder of just how awful those seats were, and also has a unique glimpse of Lenny Dykstra's walkoff homer in that game, which put the Mets up 2-1 in the series.

Speaking of which, here is a promo for playoffs as featured on ABC. Apart from featuring Doc Gooden in passing fashion, they also give Reggie Jackson some serious screen time. In my mind, Mr. October was almost done by '86, and the numbers seem to bear me out (18 HRs, 58 RBI, 0.1 WAR). You'd think rookie sensation Wally Joyner (Wally World!) would've been a better choice. Obviously, the ABC promo department was looking to hook in people who hadn't watched baseball in several years.

For a more prominent display of Gooden, we turn to the opening credits of NBC's Game of the Week back in the 1986 season. Doc accompanies the narrator's mention of "baseball's majesty," and he certainly did have a majestic delivery in those days. If you stick around after the open, you get a quick glimpse of a Royals-Angels game from that season, and also what it was like when MLB's game of the week was handled by a legend like Vin Scully and not joyless talking heads like Joe Buck. And no, I don't know why the game picked up in the top of the second.

Yesterday Dan Lewis did an excellent job trying to break down the financial mess that the Mets have found themselves in due to the Wilpon ownership. I hope most of you have taken the time to read it, because it's an awful lot more professionally done than much of what the New York media is capable of coming up with. I guess it's no surprise that MLB has reportedly taken notice, I'm just a little upset that it took them this long. If and when a new ownership group is installed I think their first order of business should be to raise capital by putting Picard jerseys up for sale on the team's website. If he ousts the Wilpons, I'd buy one and put it proudly next to my Beltran and Reyes ones.

New Met center fielder Andres Torres will be the subject of a movie coming out this year. The film will document his struggles with ADHD. Everything about the guy seems to be positive, so maybe the NY media will adore him as much as they do this guy. If only Carlos Beltran had been so lovable...

Now that the winter meeting TRAID rumors appear to have died some, the plan appears for Daniel Murphy to return to second base for next season. He'll likely be paired in the middle infield with Ruben Tejada, and Tejada's move to short will likely take some of the pressure off of Murph to perform. While those two may never anchor the greatest infield ever, they are certainly likely to produce an awful lot of bang for the Wilpons buck.

Jon Rauch seems to be raring to go for his new team. While he's probably not as good a value as Murphy or Tejada, it will be nice to trot out a reliever who's a little better than Ryota Igarashi on a regular basis. Speaking of Igarashi, he appears to have found a job with the Pirates. Maybe that was the player they actually signed when they announced signing an unnamed Met last month. Rauch may be needed more often if Adam Rubin is to be believed. Rubin found "sources" from another team to give us an update on Johan Santana. Thanks Adam.

In other Japanese baseball news, the Yu Darvish bidding came to a close yesterday. Most "experts" believe he'll be headed to Toronto, but the results should leak fairly soon. Fellow posted player Hiroyuki Nakajima had his bidding won by the Yankees, but it appears a signing is unlikely. Personally I'd like to see this whole bidding process scrapped.

FanGraphs took a look back at one of the most universally laughed at trades of the last year, the Colby Rasmus trade. I don't think there is a fan alive that expected the trade to work out the way it ultimately did, so maybe Angels fans can cross their fingers for a Vernon Wells miracle next season.

Non-Mets target Josh Willingham is off the market now. He's reportedly finalized a deal with the Minnesota Twins.

A trade was completed yesterday as well. Long time AAOP favorite Jed Lowrie was sent packing yesterday to the Houston Astros. I'm really surprised at the cost of Mark Melancon, and it really makes the Angel Pagan trade look a lot better in my eyes.

The Grinch Who Stole The Payroll

Only the Gunslinger can save the Mets. Tim Tebow, by request (don't ask). More grission than you can shake a stick at.

Ryota Igarashi Agrees To Terms With Pirates - SB Nation Pittsburgh

Good night, sweet prince.

Grant Brisbee wins the Pulitzer for Investigative Reporting

Well-played, Mr. Brisbee.

The Mets' financial situation is worse than we thought. I've written a few things over the last week or so, and during the process, I keep finding new facts alleged by the media about the dollars and cents -- or lack thereof -- which make this team run.

All these items are spread over tens of articles spread across, at this point, a half dozen different publications. After the jump, I try and cobble as much of it together as I can, with copious amounts of links.

Do the Mets have any money?

This isn't an easy question to answer directly, but the short answer is, "probably not," as explained below.

The Mets had "big losses" in 2011, "irrespective of Bernie Madoff." Perhaps as much as $70 million.

Those aren't my words -- they're Sandy Alderson's. Alderson, in the same piece, said that the Mets had lost $70 million, but wouldn't say whether that was in 2011 alone. If it is, that'd be perfectly consistent with what Fred Wilpon said earlier this year, as well as a more recent report from the NY Post. And it's also close to what Forbes came up with -- $77 million in losses, if you don't include SNY profits (discussed below) -- if you assume operational revenue is for 2011 is $0.

We don't know what the exact number is -- it could be $40 million, $70 million, $100 million, etc. We also don't know if the losses Alderson (or, for that matter, Wilpon) was talking about included the Mets' share of profits from SNY. We don't know, explicitly, whether the losses are operational losses or whether they include debt service, but given the size of the loss, debt almost certainly needs to be one of the factors.

Let's look at the Mets' revenue.

Forbes estimates that the Mets had $268 million in revenue in 2009 and $233 in 2010. I can find estimates for three big chunks of money, excluding its share of profits from SNY.

1) The Mets are getting $25 million a year from Citibank for naming rights of Citi Field, per Adam Rubin. Note that he believes that most people have it as $20 million.

2) Forbes estimated that gate receipts were $164 million in 2009 and $123 million in 2010 (see links above).

3) SNY pays the Mets an estimated $60 million to $70 million for the rights to broadcast Mets games, according to the New York Times (second to last sentence). Note that this is independent of (and in excess of) any of SNY's profits which flow to the Mets.

With a player payroll of roughly $150 million, it's pretty clear that the team's debt service is what's keeping these losses so high.

So, how much debt does the team have?

Forbes estimates that, going into the 2011 season, the team owed $1.07 billion. Most of that -- $695 million -- is tied to Citi Field construction, but $375 million is team debt. This does not include the $25 million emergency loan MLB made to the team, which only came to light after Forbes made its estimations.

The Daily News has the Mets' debt at $427 million (and may attribute that number to Wilpon; their language is unclear and may be intended to mislead). Whether this includes the $25 million MLB loan is unlikely but questionable; whether it includes Citi Field debt is unknown.

How does that turn into (say) $70 million in losses?

Again, let's go to Forbes: they assert that the Mets owed $52 million on loans regarding Citi Field, and another $25 in debt service to that $375 million in team debt.

How did the Mets cover that budget deficit?

We don't really know. Some of it -- probably around $40-50 million -- came from their SNY stake. Another $25 came from the loan from MLB. That comes close to, and might even exceed, $70 million. However, the New York Post (third to last sentence) claims that the Wilpons put $38 million into the Mets this year in order to keep the team solvent. Where this money came from is unknown; it may have simply been the Mets' share of SNY profits; it may have been additional.

Can they cover it in the future?

As of now, almost certainly not. The team hasn't paid back the $25 million emergency loan from MLB as of December 1. Further, Wilpon apparently told SI (per the Daily News) that the $200 million the Mets were hoping to raise by selling 20-25% of the team (discussed later) was already armarked, with $100 million going toward operating costs -- basically, money set aside to keep the Mets solvent.

Wait -- can't SNY keep the Mets solvent? I hear that SNY is incredibly profitable.

This is true, but context matters. The Times states that SNY does about $120 million in free cash flow a year, which we'll use as an approximation for earnings before debt service. SNY has about $450 million in debt, per that same article as well as others. Given reports (mentioned above) that the team earned $40-50 million from its SNY stake, and that the team owns 65% of SNY, the television station is probably clearing $75 million or so a year in profits. That's a ton of money when your expenses are in the $200-$400 million range -- in other words, SNY is extremely profitable in that its margins are great.

Margins? Why is that important to note?

Two reasons:

1) It means that SNY's earnings can't really save the Mets, in and of themselves. While the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim's recent TV deal earns them $150 million a year for the next 20 years, the Mets' arrangement with SNY is only starting to approach that. (I don't think the Mets could get $150 million a year in a negotiated contract, for what it's worth; and I think the Angels only did because of what's going on with the Dodgers -- and probably only because they signed Pujols.) So it's probably wrong to look at SNY as something which can, in and of itself, buoy the Mets indefinitely. Yes, SNY is insanely profitable, but that's only when you compare their revenues to their expenditures. Compare gross profits to the Mets' payroll and it's probably a negative number for a long, long time, if not forever.

2) It means that SNY's valuation is fantastic. It may be worth $1 billion -- that is, more than the Mets itself.

Wait: how much are the Mets worth?

Right now, the best guess is $700 million to $1 billion, excluding the team's debt. Before the 2011 season, Forbes estimated it to be about $757 million, down from $858 million a year earlier. The team is looking to raise $200 million in a mix of equity and debt and apparently, that equity is based on a valuation of $950 million. The Wilpons had previously stated that they'd sell up to 25% of the team, so this range makes sense given the decision to raise $200 million. Of course, this new $200 million raise is going slowly per one account (or well, per another) so perhaps the $950 million valuation is too high.

So the Wilpons are going to sell part of the team. Problem solved, right?

No -- because of the debt, it can't be a straight sale. Assuming that the Mets owe $700 million total (which is probably too low), and that the team's valuation absent the debt is $900 million (which is probably too high), the team's "book value" is $200 million. (If you don't get this: imagine homeowners selling their house for $250,000, but with a $200,000 mortgage they have to pay off. The homeowners only get $50,000. The analogy isn't quite perfect but it does the job.)

Twenty five percent of that is $50 million, but the Mets are hoping to raise $200 million -- that is, the full amount as if the team had no debt. In order to get that "full amount," the Mets have to do some weird things in the equity purchase contract -- things which muddy the waters.

Like what?

The David Einhorn dealings contained an odd contractual clause. Einhorn was to pay $200 million for a non-controlling, non-voting stake in the team, probably around 33% of it. If that was the full deal, we'd have a pretty straightforward equity sale, putting the team's valuation well north of $650 million. (Because Einhorn's 33% would be non-voting, it'd be cheaper, on a per-share basis, than the Wilpons'.)

But that wasn't the full deal. Apparently, per the contract, the Wilpons had three to five years to pay back Einhorn's $200 million investment. If they did, Einhorn would still retain a roughly 17% stake in the team; if not, Einhorn would have the option to buy a controlling stake in the team -- totaling 60% ownership for one dollar.

The new investors the Mets are trying to attract are also getting a sweetened deal with an out clause. These investors are, collectively, buying $200 million in equity, but if after six years, they want out, the Wilpons will pay them back their investment plus 3% interest (compounded annually, I assume).

In other words...

In six years, there's a very good chance that the Wilpons will need to come up with $240 million, give or take, to pay back these investors. After all, even if the Mets' valuation shoots up over the next six years, it'll be hard for investors/lenders to keep a very tiny (roughly 2 percent) stake in the team while forgoing a nearly $4 million profit payday.

OK, let's talk SNY. You said it was worth $1 billion... can't the Wilpons sell part, and get money out of it?

Maybe.

First, they don't own the whole thing.

SNY is owned by the Mets (65%), Time Warner Cable (27%), and NBCUniversal (8%). NBCUniversal is co-owned by Comcast (51%) and GE (49%), with Comcast operating it. The Mets' stake in SNY is a bit unclear -- I've read in some places that the Wilpons own SNY independent of the Mets, but I can't find a citation for that any more, and I've read things which suggest otherwise as well. It's probably a non-issue, though, as the Wilpons could reorganize the Mets' cap table to get around that if need be, I think.

The minority owners have some rights. We're not sure what those rights are, but in March, TWC and NBCU apparently threatened to block a sale of some of the Mets' share of SNY. And there's a good chance that TWC and NBCU have a right of first refusal over any sale, which, especially in NBCU's case, is interesting, as Comcast has a growing network of sports stations -- and no New York foothold.

Second, SNY has a LOT of debt.

As in $450 million. Apparently, the Mets/Wilpons, TWC, and NBCU refinanced the debt on SNY in 2007 and, in doing so, added a lot more debt so they could pay themselves a dividend worth, in total, $240 million. (Where that money went is anyone's guess.) Because of the debt, and because that debt went in part to the owners as a dividend, it's near certain that the first dollars of any such sale would go toward that debt. Basically, if SNY is worth $1 billion, it's only worth $550 million after the debt is deducted, meaning the Mets' share is worth about $357.5 million.

That doesn't mean the Mets couldn't recoup another $200 million or more by selling part of their interest in SNY. It does, however, mean that doing so would almost certainly cost them control of SNY, as Comcast or TWC would likely be purchasing the sold amount and adding it to their stake. In order to get $200 million out of SNY, the Mets would need to sell 36% of the network -- that's enough to give TWC a majority share or to make Comcast the lead shareholder.

Oh, and selling that much of SNY would effectively cut the $40 million or so SNY throws off to the Mets in half. That would mean the team is running additional losses of $20 million a year, which the Wilpons may not be able to survive.

Sum it up?

Sure.

Right now, the Mets are running serious losses annually -- even including their profit share from SNY. There's no easy way for them to get enough cash to run the team, unless the Wilpons keep putting money in (if they can), and the current plan has a $240 million price tag attached to it, due 2017. They could sell a lot of their SNY stake, but that'd be a very painful sale -- and perhaps one fatal to the Wilpons' efforts to maintain their ownership of the team.

At least the Wilpons don't have to worry about Bernie Madoff any more.

Untrue: Irving Picard is still trying to recover money from the Wilpons -- somewhere between $83 million and $386 million.

With the non-tender of Ronny Paulino, there's a bit of a question regarding who the Mets will use as their second catcher next season. It's not unheard of for a player to re-sign with a team after a non-tender, but given the relatively low salary Paulino would have earned in arbitration, it doesn't seem like he'll be back with the Mets.

The in-house candidates for the job are Mike Nickeas, who turns 29 in February and has been in the Mets' farm system since 2006, and Lucas May, who is 27 and joined the Mets earlier this week.

Between 2010 and 2011, Nickeas spent a little time in the big leagues for a total of 69 plate appearances. It's an incredibly small sample, but in that time, he hit .190/.239/.254, which is obviously not good. His career totals in the minors are .237/.329/.342, most of which has occurred in either AA or AAA between 2005 and 2011. Catchers don't generally produce much offensively, but Nickeas would probably be even more of a liability at the plate than the grand majority of his positional peers.

May, who had one cup of coffee with the Royals in 2010, has had some good years at the plate in the minors, especially against left-handed pitching, as Ted Berg noted. He's not exactly the ideal option, but it seems reasonably possible that he could step in for the gig. Plus it would give the Mets two guys name Lucas, which is something.

If the Mets look outside the organization for help behind the plate, the pickings are pretty slim. Given the free-agent market, the Mets could opt to play Josh Thole in 120 games or so while letting Nickeas catch the remainder. While Thole's career splits are drastic, he's faced left-handed pitching so infrequently that it's far too early to say he is incapable of hitting it at the major-league level. That very well may be the case, but one of the downsides of having Paulino around this year was that the Mets didn't get to see what Thole could do against left-handed pitching.

There are eleven remaining free agents at the position, most of whom are not good hitters. As for defense, the great work of Mike Fast at Baseball Prospectus regarding pitch framing and Bojan Koprivica at The Hardball Times regarding pitch blocking helps paint a picture, and there's also the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Let's have a look at the remaining free agents, their 2011 and career wOBA, and the defensive data. Framing Runs are from 2007 through 2011, Blocking Runs are from 2008 through 2011, and Defensive Runs Saved are from 2008 through 2011. It's all sortable, too.

Player 2011 wOBA Career wOBA Framing Runs Blocking Runs DRS Chris Gimenez 0.266 0.254 6.4 -- -- Chris Snyder 0.340 0.317 10.3 -2.1 -2 Dioner Navarro 0.261 0.290 -18.9 -2.8 3 Eli Whiteside 0.251 0.268 14 -2.2 2 Ivan Rodriguez 0.265 0.343 5.5 1.6 3 J.R. Towles 0.245 0.258 -7.6 -- -5 Jason Varitek 0.318 0.336 -17 2.9 -1 Koyie Hill 0.241 0.252 -24.6 2 3 Ramon Castro 0.332 0.315 -7 0.6 Rob Johnson 0.248 0.259 -24.6 -7.8 6 Ronny Paulino 0.289 0.309 9.6 0.4 2

If the Mets intend to fill the role vacated by Paulino, the two options that seem to make the most sense are Chris Snyder and former-Met Ramon Castro. Both have the ability to hit left-handed pitching. Unlike Paulino, they're not that bad against right-handed pitching, either. The problem with Snyder would likely be salary, as he made $4.5 million this year and might not be seeking a pay cut for 2012. With Castro, there would be questions about his ability to catch 40 games at the age of 36.

Most of the other names aren't all that appealing, mainly because of age, a lack of offensive ability, or both. Signing the cheapest of the free agents while stashing Nickeas and May in Buffalo for depth and development seems like the best way to go unless the market for backup catchers is really out of the Mets' price range.

Poll Who should be the Mets' second catcher alongside Josh Thole?

• Mike Nickeas
• Lucas May
• Chris Gimenez
• Chris Snyder
• Dioner Navarro
• Eli Whitside
• Ivan Rodriguez
• J.R. Towles
• Jason Varitek
• Koyie Hill
• Ramon Castro
• Rob Johnson
• Ronny Paulino
• Someone else.

  234 votes | Results

Meet the Mets

The Mets had their yearly holiday party on Tuesday and there were plenty of interviews with those who showed up. Sandy Alderson, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese and Justin Turner all spoke. Sandy revealed that he found out about the Wilpons' most recent loan on Monday when we all did. Yes, that's totally encouraging (sarcasm font here). He also mentioned that he's searching for a safety net in case Johan Santana isn't ready for opening day (again, very encouraging). Finally, he mentioned that some minority shares in the team may close in January, though a source told Andy Martino that the club may not end sales in January.

Meanwhile, Murphy says he is ready to play second base and is doing everything to prepare for spring training. Niese is recovered from the side issue that sidelined him in September and also spoke about the swirling trade rumors. Regarding the rumors, Alderson stated that Niese is in the team's future plans and any talk with teams is just that at this point, but Matt Cerrone seems to have a different feeling. And Turner passed on playing winter ball because he felt worn down from the grind of a big league season. Apparently, none of these players are In The Best Shape of Their Lives (ITBSOTL™!) yet but when they are, we will certainly be one of the first to report it!

After the holiday party, Sandy Alderson made an appearance on Fox Business Channel, where he spoke about the team's most recent loan, the Wilpons' financial standing, the loss of Jose Reyes and whether they'll be able to hang onto David Wright. For what it's worth, Sandy's view of the Wilpons' future seems to be much rosier than John Harper's in the Daily News, but let's not forget that positive PR is likely a big part of Sandy's job at this point.

In reaction to the moves the Mets made on Monday, Ted Berg reflected on the end of the Ronny Paulino era in Flushing. Meanwhile, Patrick Flood takes a look at what the team has left to do this offseason, which means building some semblance of a bench and finding some starting pitching to back up the starting five. With so many 40-man slots taken up by prospects who likely won't contribute in the majors in 2012, Sandy's got quite a job juggling players around. At least we know that Mike Baxter has been invited to return to the team on a minor league deal. Whitestone's Own seems like a good guy and decent bench option. Why not, at this point?

Finally, though they may not have the 40-man room, recently non-tendered Dodger Hong-Chi Kuo would make an interesting option as a second lefty out of the pen. If he's healthy, he's definitely a high-upside type pickup and a huge improvement over Danny Ray Herrera (and Tim Byrdak, too).

A few free agent outfielders seem to be close to finding new homes. Former Marlin and Athletic Josh Willingham is nearing a deal with the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Rockies are now in the mix for Carlos Beltran, along with Michael Cuddyer who they've been chasing for a while now. Obviously, Beltran heard about all of the attention Cuddyer was getting from the Rockies and just had to butt in on it. #SelfishBeltran #BlameBeltran

The Red Sox signed catcher Kelly Shoppach to a one year deal worth $1.35 million. The Mets were rumored to have interest in him earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, the Phillies signed Dontrelle Willis to a one year deal worth around $1 million. What's interesting about this deal is that the Phillies will use Willis out of the bullpen, likely as a LOOGY. Not a bad idea, as even though Willis has been awful as a starter in recent years, he is still dominant against lefties, limiting them to a .127/.169/.200 line with only 2 walks against 20 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

The Yu Darvish sweepstakes is gaining steam as teams have until 5 PM today to submit bids for the 25 year old Japanese righty. I know it's totally unlikely considering their financial issues but I think it'd be pretty awesome if the Mets put in a stealth bid for Darvish's services.

Some more details about the new Collective Bargaining Agreement have been announced. These include changes to the instant replay system, the announcement that teams in the same division can now match up in the Division Series of the playoffs and that teams will play no more than 20 interleague games per season, among other nuggets of info. Just as a note, the Mets played 18 interleague games in 2011, so this isn't much of a difference from previous years.

Rumor has it that Lou Piniella will rejoin the Yankees as an analyst in the YES Network broadcast booth for the 2012 season.

Finally, the talk of the town on Tuesday was the news that surfaced in the Post that New York's favorite gritty, RINGZ-bearing hero Derek Jeter sends off his one-night stands with a gift basket full of autographed memorabilia. I'll leave it up to the community to sound off about this one in the comments.

I don't believe the news that the Mets have sought--and received--another loan from MLB should be all that shocking. But this, combined with the recent loss of Jose Reyes to the free spending Marlins (another team with dubious finances), set off many fans' You Gotta Be Effin' Kidding Me Alarms.

This morning, I even heard a WFAN caller say he would root for the Nationals over the Mets this coming season. While I suspect this caller is either hyperbolizing or not much of a fan (while also sounding like the kind of guy who proposes a Mike Nickeas for Justin Verlander trade), his words were indicative of the kind of anger and fear inspired by this news. It's one thing for the Mets to take a pass on a high priced free agent, home grown or not. It's another entirely to need a $40 million get-me-over from Bud Selig's Money Store.

The line thus far has been that this piddling eight-figure loan is just to tide the Mets over until their wonderful minority shares scheme takes off. That plan is going swimmingly thus far, because the Wilpons have told us it is, and anything else is none of our business, apparently. That's why it's never been explained exactly why anyone would buy shares in an institution with steadily mounting debt, whose owners will probably be forced to sell majority stake before long. Or why the Mets' best hope for a viable, well financed minority owner, David Einhorn, mysteriously dropped out this summer, never to be heard from again.

I've defended the Wilpons on this site before. Around this time last year, I still believed they weren't so much dishonest as gobsmacked, so stunned by the Madoff mess they were slow to realize the true depths of their financial situation. But at this point, I feel there is more evidence that they're simply not telling the truth about the status of their coffers. Or even worse, are possessed of a god-like level of self delusion or crippling amount of stupidity to not realize they don't have enough money to own a baseball team anymore.

So the Wilpons are either liars or morons with blinders. In either case, I'd rather they not have anything to do with my favorite team. And yet, I can't blame them entirely for this mess. In the face of financial ruin, they're simply trying to hang on to their biggest, most valued asset. Wouldn't you?

It takes two to tango in this situation: One to hold out his hand, and the other to fork over the cash. For the latter, we have to blame Bud Selig, MLB commissioner and Wilpon BFF. Fred Wilpon, after all, was instrumental in ousting Faye Vincent and installing Selig as Commissioner For Life, and for that Selig is eternally grateful. It's the main reason why Wilpon, and not his former co-owner Nelson Doubleday, is now the sole owner of the Mets.

If Wilpon was anybody else, would he be toast by now? It's impossible to say, but if the Frank McCourt affair proved anything, it's that if Selig wants someone gone, he can make them disappear with Mafia speed. Granted, McCourt did Selig a huge favor by doing colossally idiotic and unethical things like putting his family on the payroll with no-show jobs and spending lavish amounts of money on ridiculous expenses. But it was clear from day one that the main reason Selig tossed McCourt to the curb when times got tight is that he was not part of Selig's "inner circle." More than anything else, Selig simply did not want that man to own a baseball team anymore.

If the Wilpons' situation isn't exactly analogous to McCourt's--they haven't, as far as I know, attempted to hire a faith healer on the Mets' dime--it is disturbingly familiar to that of another embattled former owner, Tom Hicks. As owner of the Texas Rangers, Hicks was a comparatively good citizen, but he stretched himself too thin and took out far too many loans to cover expenses. He too sought to sell minority shares in his team, until the enormity of his cash problems became painfully obvious.

A planned sale of the team was squashed when Hicks' creditors realized the proceeds wouldn't cover his enormous debts. Selig threatened an MLB takeover of the Rangers, much in the way he'd done with the Expos. Hicks was forced to declare bankruptcy and the team was finally sold at auction to the current Peter Greenberg-Nolan Ryan ownership.

In other words, when Selig even threatens severe action, things get done. The differences between Hicks' situation and that of the Wilpons' is becoming increasingly academic. And yet, Selig has not so much as had a harsh word for the Wilpons. He continues to play along with their Potemkin village version of reality, and it does no one a bit of good, least of all the Wilpons themselves. If Bud Selig and Fred Wilpon really are good friends, the best thing Selig can do is to gently guide his friend out MLB's backdoor.

The Mets new shortstop doesn't quite have the tools of that the Mets old shortstop. He doesn't have the wheels or the dreads of a Jose Reyes, nor does he have his pop. But so far, Ruben Tejada has shown a plus walk rate, which isn't something Reyes did every year. Can Tejada ride a good glove and a good eye at the plate into some valuable years for the team? That might help soften the blow.

Let's take a look at his heat maps, dissect his batted-ball distance plots, compare him to similar young middle infielders, consider his entire statistical history by including his minor league work, and talk to his hitting coach to get an idea of how we might project this project.

We've already looked at his peripheral plate discipline stats and discovered that he made some strides between his rookie and sophomore years. He doesn't see more pitches per plate appearance than the league, or even the Mets team, but he is seeing more pitches per PA than he did last year. He made more contact in 2011 than the league did, too. Making contact is a strength for him, even -- his career swinging strike rate (7.0%) is significantly better than league average (8.5% most years).

So far, so good. Tejada is becoming more patient and has always made contact. What's the next step?

Dave Hudgens says that he's told Tejada many times that patience is a way for him to "separate" himself from the pack. With his good glove, Hudgens says, all Tejada needs to do is continue to add patience to his package.

How does this translate to everyday work in the cage? "I tell him to be aggressive on his pitch," says Hudgens. Patience is not only about not swinging at pitches outside the zone, it's about not swinging at pitches that the pitcher wants you to swing at. The converse is also true: it's about swinging at good pitches inside the zone.

Hudgens is getting through to the youngster.

Those same peripheral stats show that Tejada is swinging more at pitches in the zone -- and making more contact. He went from swinging at pitches inside the zone 1.4% less often than the league in 2010 to 5.1% more often than the league in 2011, too, so that seems like a significant change. He's being more aggressive in the zone.

His heat maps tell the same story. Here are the run values on pitches compared to league average in 2010:

His ability to make contact and show good patience probably served him well on pitches that were on the borderline. Hence the red swatches outside of the middle of the zone. It's a decent heat map, but it also has a huge hole or three in the middle, which is where most players find their power. Let's look at 2011:

At first glance, this heat map looks less exciting. The reds are less red! Where did his power go!

The reasons this heat map represents a change for good are complicated. The easiest way to laud Tejada for his work based on these pictures is to say that he shrunk his hole and began to put up league average numbers (or slightly better) in the middle of the zone. That alone is huge.

But Hudgens says that patience is also related to fear. Tejada will have some work to do "getting feared," he admits, but that being aggressive on pitches down the middle is an important part of this process. Maybe he won't hit a ton of home runs, but if he continues to stroke doubles on pitches down the heart of the plate, pitchers will be forced back to the edges of the zone -- a place where Tejada has shown he has some ability to discern balls from strikes.

This fits into the narrative of the sophomore season. In his first year, Tejada survived mostly by not swinging. He was "tentative" as Hudgens puts it, and he wasn't able to do much with pitches down the middle. In his second year, as Tejada told our own Rob Castellano, Tejada began to get more "comfortable" at the plate. That comfort translated into more aggressiveness on pitches down the heart of the plate, which is something that Tejada will have to show in order to continue to get walks.

He doesn't have much home run power. You can see that in his batted ball distance graphs:

David Wright, for example, had a batted ball distance that hovered close to 300 feet on fly balls, home runs and line drives. Tejada's number is much closer to 200. And no amount of pulling the ball will serve Tejada well. He should aim for doubles rather than home runs.

But if you look at the end of 2010 (the first clump) and the beginning of 2011 (the second bunch of dots), you see that he made progress even when it came to power. In fact, since he didn't hit a home run in his second season, and you can see he doesn't have many long drives on his resume, it seems like he focused on doubles in a way.

In other words, he focused on finding a pitch he could drive to the best of his abilities.

We once ran some comps for Tejada after his rookie season, and they weren't incredibly exciting. Mark Lewis showed up as a reasonable comparison. Re-run the search though -- this time look for middle infielders that put up a .330+ OBP in more than 500 PAs before they hit 22 years old -- and the results are a little more promising. Take the power players away (players with a .420 slugging or less), and Tejada had the 15th-best season on the list:

Now that's a better list of characters. The worst name from the free agency era ahead of him on the list is probably Willie Randolph, and he had a decent career. Shortstop Pee Wee Reese played in a different offensive environment, but he was a glove-first dude with patience, and he could provide quite the model for Tejada. This is a list the Mets probably wouldn't hate to see.

Brian Cartwright, the brain behind the OLIVER projections on The Hardball Times, graciously submitted his thoughts about the OLIVER projection for Ruben Tejada -- .261/.317/.339. As you can see, Tejada has made great strides in his limited time, but if we look at larger sample sizes, we may mute his upside some.

I believe in large sample sizes and the THT Forecasts' MLE section is an application of that -- summing the translated performances at any level into a composite line for the entire year. A high rate in part of a season in the majors is balanced by a lower rate in the minors the rest of the season, or vice versa. When comparing the MLEs from one year to the next it is easier to see the player's true talent level, and how it might be changing. A typical 20-year-old increases his BB% by 6.3% over the year before, a 21-year-old 6.0%, while Ruben Tejada has increased his walk rate over the past two seasons by about 25% in each.
His last four season's MLEs
Year Level Age PA BA/ OB/ SA wOBA BB% SO%
2008 A+/Fall 18 651 206/249/265 231 058 181
2009 AA/Fall 19 621 265/302/351 285 050 131
2010 AAA/MLB 20 496 239/296/304 269 063 169
2011 AAA/MLB 21 607 264/331/334 302 079 142
2012 Proj 22 261/317/339 292 074 138
Looking close, Tejada drew 32 unintentional BB in 373 with the Mets in 2011, 19 UBB in 252 PA the year before, a total of 51 UBB in 625 PA in his major league career, a rate of 8.2%. During the same two seasons in Triple-A he drew 30 UBB in 470 PA, an unadjusted 6.4% rate. Tejada's 2010 Triple-A rate (4.6%, 11 of 241) was one of the lowest of his career, but his 2011 Triple-A rate (8.2%, 19 of 231) is the same as his career MLB rate. It appears than when Tejada returned to the minors in 2011 he retained the patience he gained in the MLB.
We should not look only at MLB and ignore MiLB – we need to consider all performance, in the proper context, and sum by season to smooth out random fluctuations that cover parts of seasons.

By combining major and minor league performance, Cartwright paints the picture of a player that has made real improvements over the past three years, but also still has a more modest projection. At his new position -- shortstops hit .261/.314/.374 last season -- Tejada would fit right in and his glove could still make a difference. But for all the visions of Edgar Renteria dancing at the keystone in Queens, there are reminders that faithcasting can be dangerous.

Minor league walk rates don't always correlate exactly with major league walk rates. Part of this has to do with the pitching talent in the minor leagues, part of this is the natural progression of a young batter as he gets better, and part of this has to do with the pitcher's perception of the hitter at the plate... and behind him.

To date, Tejada has received some of his walks because of position in the lineup. 402 of his 544 major league at-bats have come in the eight or nine spot. His BB/K ratio in the eighth spot is 46/56. In his other at-bats, that drops to 9/20. National League batters have hit .246/.315/.359 in the eighth spot... and .250/.310/.383 in the seventh spot. It's clear that his spot in the batting order has helped him get some walks -- at the very least, the six intentional walks he's gotten so far in his career.

The transition from eighth in the order to the top of the order could come some time this year, agreed Hudgens, and with it will come the biggest test of Tejada's career. Whether or not the player can manage that transition will be up to his ability to continue being aggressive in the zone even when a pitcher isn't looking forward to the batter behind him.

At least Ruben Tejada is progressing well on many fronts, and is in better company now. He won't ever be Jose Reyes, but his glove and patience might make him a very valuable player.

Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman for his site, baseballheatmaps.com, for some of the images used in this piece.

Poll Will Ruben Tejada's patience survive the move out of the eighth spot in the lineup?

• Yes
• No

  423 votes | Results

Non-Tender Day has now come and gone, and the Mets cut their roster down to 40 by not extending contracts to Mike Baxter and Ronny Paulino. Somehow, D.J. Carrasco survives. Must be the stirrups. Paulino was expected and Baxter was certainly a strong candidate, although it leaves the Mets with very little outfield depth at the moment. It also leaves them with a projected MLB bench of Turner, Nickeas, Satin, F! and Cap'n Kirk, so expect more moves in the coming weeks. Maybe Kelly Shoppach?

The Mets needed to cut two players as they claimed RHP Jeremy Hefner from the Pirates along with signing C Lucas May and LHP Garrett Olson as minor league free agents. Both are likely to be NRIs for Spring Training. Hefner was added to the 40-man and gets tossed into the sixth starter blender with Chris Schwinden and Mark Cohoon. May is interesting. He hits lefties pretty well, and can play some corners as well as catch. Could be an interesting 25th man candidate, given how left-leaning the Mets roster is right now. Garrett Olson is...uh...left-handed.

In what will be a surprise to absolutely no one, the Mets need money again. I wonder if a 40 million loan means BoA won't charge them any debit card fees, because that is probably a dealbreaker at this point. There is some good news, though, as the Wilpons may now have to sell the team ahead of schedule. Whatever that schedule was.

Your non-tender news: MLB.com gives you an overview of some of the day's more intriguing moves. I'd consider taking flyers on Gorzelanny or Volstad, for what it's worth. I imagine a lot of teams will be interested in those two, though. Saunders would also be an obvious choice, except I think he gets multiple years from somebody. If you want to check out how an individual player fared, there is MLBTR's non-tender tacker.

The Marlins may have a shiny new stadium, and almost 200 million worth of shiny new players (not to mention those shiny new eyesores they will be wearing), but they are still the Marlins. You know Mr. Loria, you might want to spend a little bit to make sure people can actually get to your stadium.

Aramis Ramirez trades in red hots for brats as he signed as three-year deal with the Brewers. Seems like a reasonable contract to me. Jack Moore of Fangraphs has more on the move here. The Brewers freed up third base by trading Casey McGahee to Pittsburgh. Have to assume he is Pedro Alvarez insurance, which is actually pretty bad insurance. You know, like the type Ryan O'Reilly warns you about. This does mean that the Brewers are out on Prince Fielder.

The bowtie thinks that Hanley Ramirez should be on the move this offseason and runs down a list of possible suitors. Ben Cherington needs to find Mike Lowell, wherever he is, and trade him and Beckett back to Miami. Maybe get the Fish to throw in Annibal Sanchez, too. Rosenthal also reports that the Rangers aren't too interested in Fielder or Darvish, but may make a play for a starter on the trade market. I have this bad feeling Darvish ends up in the Bronx next year. If you want, you can predict where Darvish will land over at Baseball Nation.

Look, just cause LaRussa retired doesn't meant that St. Louis is giving up their love affair with Ship Schumaker. No siree.

This in no way makes me hate John Rocker more. I still hate him the exact same amount. Though I am annoyed I had to see his name again, I guess.

Jeff Sullivan takes a look at the fastest and slowest batters by time in between pitches.

And finally, Notgraphs has the least safe for work image I have ever seen. Okay, technically it is safe for work. But really, it's not. Especially if you work in an office that frowns upon pained wailing.

As expected, the Mets have non-tendered Ronny Paulino. Brought in last winter to platoon with Josh Thole behind the plate, Paulino was disappointing, even with relatively moderate expectations coming into the season.

The good thing about Paulino was that he historically produced against left-handed pitching, and he was decent at that in 2011. Unfortunately, he got more plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and his overall production suffered. His .663 OPS wasn't very good, even for a catcher, and the Mets seemingly figured they could get comparable production from someone like Mike Nickeas for less money. For what it's worth, MLB Trade Rumors estimated that Paulino would have fetched $1.6 million in arbitration had the Mets gone that route.

The Mets also non-tendered Mike Baxter, who's originally from Queens and got some playing time down the stretch this season, as a housekeeping move for their 40-man roster.

While neither move should have all that much of an impact on the season, it makes it clear that the Mets do have a few bench spots to fill. It's safe to assume that contracts were tendered to Mike Pelfrey, Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Acosta.

The Wilpons get another loan

This time it's 40 mil from The Bank of America. And of course the Wilpons best Buddy Selig allowed it. I'm starting to hate him as much as I hate the Wilpons. Where is Baghdad Dave Howard to spin this?

Mets Fill Out the Bisons Roster

Claimed Pirates RHP Jeremy Hefner off waivers and signed C Lucas May and LHP Garrett Olson.

Probably AAA depth, though Hefner could be a fifth starter type. He has average stuff, but he's put together a decent MiLB statistical record outside of last year's performance in the hitter-friendly PCL. He is also an old Padres farmhand and that worked out okay with Allan Dykstra.

UPDATE: Hefner is on the 40 man, giving the Mets 42 players on the roster. Expect an additional non-tender/outright along with Paulino.