Why the Mets Must Not Trade Jeff Francouer

Exactly one year ago to the week, Jeff Francouer was struggling. He was hitting under .270 for the Atlanta Braves. Even though the fans loved their hometown hero, the Braves thought he was so done that they not only traded him away for an uninspiring journeyman outfielder, but they did it to their cross-town rival New York Mets. Francouer rewarded his new team with a .316 average and 9 home runs in the second half. Church, the journeyman outfeilder the Braves recieved, was released after the season and now fights for playing time on the Pirates.

The Mets must learn from this mistake in their attempts to improve the team at this year's trading deadline. With the team struggling mightly on it's last road trip and falling further and further from contention, GM Omar Minaya and Head Coach Jerry Manuel are doubtlessly rubbing their necks in anticipation of an approaching axe. No longer do they have injuries to hide behind, because the current mets lineup (save a Jason Bay concussion and John Maine shoulder problems) is pretty much healthy (knock on wood). Doubtlessly, in their frustration from seeing the team drop from 48-40 to 50-49 on the past road trip, there must be some temptation to "do something about it" by trading for a SP. Due to the resurgence of Angel Pagan, the return of Carlos Beltran, and the post-April struggles of Jeff Francouer, Francouer's name has been the confirmed target of trade rumors, first as a peice in a deal for SP Ted Lilly and then for Royals RP Kyle Farnsworth. But despite this tempation and the perceived lack of need of Francouer on the roster, it would be a terrible mistake for Minaya to deal Francouer.

Firstly, it goes against traditional trading wisdom, whether you be trading baseball players or stocks: buy low, sell high. Angel Pagan has started off the season playing about as well as he can possibly play, and Jeff Francouer has hit about as poorly as he can hit. Despite this, Francouer has more HR's and more RBI's than Pagan, despite receiving 28 less at bats. Both of these players have been in the league long enough that we know what to expect from them, and their histories show us that not only is francouer likely to improve from his .249 clip, but Pagan is more likely to recede a bit in the second half than he is to build on his first half numbers.

Next, Francouer is young, healthy, and durable. Look at the ages of the mets other 3 starting OFers. Jason Bay is 33, and while he's historically been pretty durable his health scared away the Red Sox from resigning him. As he enters the twilight of his career, he's no garuntee to remain healthy, especially with the Mets injury staff's horrendous record. Carlos Beltran is an old 34, having played in the majors since he was very young, and is coming of multiple knee surgeries for a degenerative osteoporosis-linked disorder. He has only been back for 2 weeks, has yet to homer, and has looked tentative running in the outfield. I still think he's gonna put up elite numbers for a few more years, because his swing appears intact, but that's by no means a garuntee, and unbiased observer will tell you there is no way of knowing how much he has left in the tank. In Angel Pagan is 29, and while this year's numbers are reassuring he has had lengthy DL stints in each of the past 2 seasons. Jeff Francouer, however, is 26, and in 4 full seasons as a proffessional he has never played fewer than 155 games, playing all 162 twice. With Fernando Martinez, their only up and coming minor leaguer, not apparently ready for the majors and plenty injury prone himself, how can the Mets ,so decimated by injuries and veteran decline in the past half-decade, trust the health of not just one but 3 questionable starting outfielders?

Finally, Francouer has intangibles unlike any other player in the majors. Jeff is a fan favorite, and more importantly he is a clubhouse favorite. Even when he hasn't been hitting this season, his unending optimism has helped many mets have bounce back seasons, contributing a fresh perspective and energy that was so lacking in prior years' teams. He has the greatest arm in baseball, saving many runs not only by using his arm to nail baserunners, but by using its reputation to keep them from even trying. These factors meen Frenchy helps this team in more ways than could anything we'd get for him in a trade, especially when he's not performing right now and wouldn't command much on the market.

Instead of trading Francouer, the Mets should realize that both Beltran and Bay are struggling just as mightily as he is, and give all of them some rest. Since Pagan is versatile enough to play all 3 outfield positions, I suggest a four-way platoon between all four players, giving each a rest every four days. That way we don't reinjure Beltran by rushing him back from his surgery, don't exacerbate Bay's concussion by playing him everyday upon his return, keep everyone's morale up by starting them regularly and simultaneously keep all four players rested through the dreaded "dog days of summer" that kill so many teams in August. In the event of an injury, we can be confident that we still have a starting-caliber player ready to step in for whoever gets hurt. If Francouer is still struggling come playoff-push or playoff time, they can always bench him, and at the end of the season the club still has the option to non-tender his contract, so it's not like they're stuck with him; in fact, with the 5 million dollars the Mets would save, they could always buy a Kyle Farnsworth-type player or better anyway. But the flexibility, security, defense, youth, and upside he offers would help the Mets far more in the second half than would some low-end journeyman pitcher.

robsafuto's picture

Bay On DL

I think that the scenario you propose would be a tough one to pull off because I'm not so sure that Beltran would be up for a platoon situation. Injury or not that would be a step down for him. In normal circumstances it would be hard for the Mets to platoon Bay and Francoeur because they're paying so much for Bay. It makes it look like the Mets are admitting they made a bad deal. And that reflects poorly on the GM. And as well as Angel Pagan has been playing the Mets would be nuts to sit him. That's why Jeff Francoeur is truly the odd man out. Having said all that the point is moot now because with Bay on the DL the Mets need Jeff Francoeur. I doubt they would consider trading him now.

robsafuto's picture

Ofer

It's a sad fact but since hitting a 3-run homer earlier his week Jeff Francoeur has been 0 for 14. He just popped out in a key situation. It's a bad time for Jeff to go cold.

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